February 2017 BAR EXAM
We must first issue the following disclaimer. These predictions should not be used as a reason to not study a particular subject that could be tested on the Bar Exam. Our predictions are based upon the current trends in various areas of law, conversations with various informed people, general research, frequency of subject matters appearing on previous Bar Exams, overall pattern recognition, and our own gut feelings. In essence, this prediction is an educated guess, but a very well prepared one.
If this is just an educated guess, why should you bother with them? We have offered these predictions for the past three Bar Exams. To be honest, we did extremely well on the first two predictions and not so well on the last prediction. In July of 2015, we accurately predicted 5 out of the 6 questions with the only miss being a switch between MBE subjects. This was inconsequential as our exam preparation methods say you should study the MBE subjects heavily regardless. In February of 2016, we again predicted 5 out of 6 questions correctly. We said the final essay was between Family Law and Wills, and that you should devote equal time to both; both subjects were actually tested.
The July 2016 Bar Exam we believe was an aberration and not a continuing trend. Over the past 10 years, the NCBE likes to throw a curve ball or two occasionally. Unfortunately, our predictions were only correct on three of the six questions. This was due to a significant departure by the NCBE from previous Bar Exams. In particular, the July exam did not have a question related to Family Law, Decedent’s Estates, or Trusts & Future Interests. Also, four of the six questions were MBE subjects. This is certainly not the norm. However, we hoped this was not a concern as our study methods heavily emphasize studying MBE subjects over all else.
Please note that these predictions are which subjects will be tested on the Multistate Essay Examination (MEE). The MEE is developed by the NCBE and consists of six 30-minute essay questions. Any state that uses the Uniform Bar Examination or UBE will use all six of these essay questions. Some states that do not use the UBE may still use all six essay questions offered by NCBE or may only use a limited number. Please verify if your state uses the NCBE generated MEE questions, as these predictions are only useful for those states.
Again, we recommend you study all subjects as much as you can. But, if you are short on time or wish to put some extra effort somewhere, we would recommend heavier focus on these. Below are our MEE Predictions:
- Civil Procedure
- Constitutional Law
- Family Law
- Agency & Partnerships (possibly combined with Torts or Corps/LLCs)
A couple of notes. First, we said last time if Conflict of Laws was not on the last exam, we would never predict it again. We are following through with this promise and not predicting it to appear on this exam. Conflict of Laws has not been tested in over four years and it has only been tested combined with another subject. This empirical evidence suggests your time will just be better suited elsewhere. This is not to say you should completely abandon Conflict of Laws. But to be honest, it is the subject you should spend the least amount of time on. If Conflict of Laws appears on this exam, we can’t expect more than 5% of test takers to adequately answer a question related to this area.
Second, the trifecta of Family Law, Decedent’s Estates, and Trusts & Future Interests is a wise choice to spend some extra time. Lastly, we are nervous about predicting Secured Transactions or Corporations not being on this exam. However, our model suggests the likelihood of these two subjects appearing is below the six subjects we have mentioned.
To be honest, we have agonized over our predictions over these past two months. We have been trying to find any information, clues, or any possible insight to make these predictions the most accurate as possible. But remember, this prediction is just a well-educated guess and you should treat it as such.
If you have any questions, please ask in the EBP Forum. We will not answer specific questions into our methodologies, but we will provide some limited explanations.
As Always, Good Luck.
P.S. We will try and provide some state specific predictions as we were able to last Bar Exam. We have received requests from several states, including Illinois which we got perfect last year. We hope to get to all requests by Wednesday 2/8.